The correlation between conspiracy theory and political engagement

Earlier this week, Lawrence Hamilton of the University of New Hampshire published new polling evaluating the extent to which Americans agreed or disagreed with a number of statements. Of the 14 statements, seven were reflections of scientific consensus — or reality, as we understand it. The other seven required belief in or acceptance of a conspiracy involving scientists and/or the government.

On the whole, Americans were less likely to agree with the conspiratorial statements than the scientific ones. The conspiratorial statement with which the most Americans agreed was about the government hiding evidence of UFOs. Fewer people agreed with that than agreed with the least-supported scientific statement, that the Sun shines for 24 hours a day during certain times of the year at the South Pole.

Disconcertingly, Hamilton also found that Americans had grown more conspiratorial since 2021. There was a statistically significant increase in the percentage of people who agreed that the Moon landing was faked, for example, and a significant decrease in agreement with evolution, the age of the Earth and even, weirdly enough, that the Earth orbits the Sun.

We can probably attribute some of this to the general embrace of nonsense that we’re seeing in the moment. Some of it is also probably linked to the political shift since 2021, the country’s shift to the right. After all, as Hamilton writes, “conservatives tend to be more open to conspiracy beliefs about non-political as well as political topics.”

That’s shown in the data. Asked if the government has the ability to control hurricanes, which it doesn’t, 14 percent of Americans said it does. Among those who voted for Kamala Harris last year, only half that percentage thinks that the government can control hurricanes. Among Trump voters, though, nearly 1 in 5 do.

The less tied to traditional politics the respondent, the less robust the rejection of the conspiracy theory. Only about half of third party voters and those who didn’t vote last year said the government can’t control hurricanes.

One can debate which way the causal arrow points here, but it isn’t particularly surprising that confidence in the political system (as manifested in vote choice) correlates to distrust of government. Nor is it surprising that conspiratorial thinking increased as Trump’s political power resurged.

What is a bit surprising is how that conspiratorial thinking has seeped into actual policy. The most conspiratorial people have historically been kept outside of the political system but, in part because Trump and his base embrace conspiracies as a means of consolidating power, even unpopular ideas like “chemtrails” and rejecting vaccines have become the targets of administration or congressional action.

America is being devoured by conspiracy theories — a statement that 1 in 10 Americans might think was meant literally.

Photo: Airplane contrails over England during World War II. (National Archives)