{"id":155,"date":"2025-08-04T14:19:06","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:19:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/?p=155"},"modified":"2025-08-04T21:59:20","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T01:59:20","slug":"the-swing-state-senators-more-worried-about-the-right-than-anyone-else","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/the-swing-state-senators-more-worried-about-the-right-than-anyone-else\/","title":{"rendered":"The swing-state senators more worried about the right than anyone else"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1524\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Capitol-1-2048x1524.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-164\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Capitol-1-2048x1524.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Capitol-1-300x223.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Capitol-1-768x571.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Capitol-1-1536x1143.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">(National Archives)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For what little good it does in the moment, it seems clear that history will not look kindly upon many of the decisions being made in Washington. President Trump will bear the brunt of that eventual opprobrium, but it&#8217;s fair to assume that his explicit and tacit allies will earn more than a few paragraphs themselves, whatever language these histories might be written in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What&#8217;s frustrating for Trump&#8217;s opponents is that this apparent inevitability seems to have only a limited effect on the decisions of those allies. There are some Republican legislators who&#8217;ve refused to confirm obviously unqualified nominees or unpopular legislation. But most haven&#8217;t, choosing instead to nestle in under the temporary shade provided by Trump&#8217;s umbrella of popularity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This may well be because they don&#8217;t think that there <em>will<\/em> be some future analysis of the moment in which they are depicted on the wrong side of history. And they may be right. The longstanding idea that the arc of the moral universe bends toward justice does seem significantly less predictive than it used to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But some legislators seem to understand that they are making decisions now that will color their legacies. Former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has voted against three of Trump&#8217;s most-contentious nominees \u2014&nbsp;Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth and Robert Kennedy \u2014&nbsp;and declined to vote for the nomination of Jeanine Pirro. But he&#8217;s an outlier; a review of 10 contentious confirmation votes shows that nearly every Republican supported all 10. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That was true from the least to the most conservative senators. The vast majority of the party caucus consistently sided with Trump&#8217;s picks. Of the 53 Republicans in the Senate, 43 of them voted for all 10 nominees. Another seven missed votes but voted yes on those they made.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"The overlap of ideology, presidential vote and support for Trump nominees\" aria-label=\"Scatter Plot\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-MHKUw\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/MHKUw\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"776\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}})}();\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>Only one Democrat, John Fetterman (D-PA), voted for one of the 10 nominees (Pam Bondi).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What&#8217;s striking about the graph above is that the uniformity of Republican support also applies regardless of how states voted in 2024. Republicans from states that backed Trump only narrowly or not at all also supported the majority of or all of Trump&#8217;s particularly contentious nominees. The gray shaded area below indicates the range of 2024 margins in states that have a sitting Democratic senator. Several Republicans who sit in that range have backed Trump&#8217;s nominees regardless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"The overlap of ideology, presidential vote and support for Trump nominees\" aria-label=\"Scatter Plot\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-7dyQQ\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/7dyQQ\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"776\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}})}();\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>You&#8217;ll notice that one of these legislators is Thom Tillis, who announced that he wouldn&#8217;t seek reelection as he publicly opposed the spending bill advocated by Trump. But even this newfound independence didn&#8217;t keep him from supporting Emil Bove or Pirro. There&#8217;s a big difference between being a guy who declines to support a successful confirmation and being the guy who causes the confirmation to fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One conclusion from the data above is that the non-Tillis senators are more worried about political pressure from their right than from their left. Perhaps this is short-sightedness, an interest in getting past primaries and worrying about general elections later. Maybe it&#8217;s non-electoral fear, worry about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/04\/17\/lisa-murkowski-trump-retaliation-00295852\">how Trump<\/a> (or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/feb\/27\/republicans-trump-threats\">his supporters<\/a>) will respond to perceived disloyalty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It does seem, though, that these legislators (and even legislators from less middle-of-the-road states) aren&#8217;t worried about the short-term cost of backing contentious or unqualified nominees, much less any long-term reputational damage. Their opponents could conceivably work to make Dave McCormick (R-PA) or Ted Budd (R-NC) the faces of confirming Emil Bove to a lifetime seat on the federal bench since, in practice, they were. But McCormick and Budd could take solace in knowing that they have a few years until they&#8217;re up for reelection. Not to mention that assuming ownership of a contentious confirmation \u2014&nbsp;that of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/06\/24\/us\/roe-kavanaugh-collins-notes.html\">Brett Kavanaugh<\/a> \u2014 didn&#8217;t keep Susan Collins from winning reelection in a state that voted against Trump last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for those history books? Well, if written, they will include long lists of senators, granting them at least some sense of obscurity. And at this rate it will be illegal to publish them in the U.S. anyway. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Senate vote data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00105.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Blanche<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00033.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bondi<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00448.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bove<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00050.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Gabbard<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00015.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Hegseth<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00052.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Kennedy<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00057.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Lutnick<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00099.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">McMahon<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00061.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Patel<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senate.gov\/legislative\/LIS\/roll_call_votes\/vote1191\/vote_119_1_00492.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Pirro<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For what little good it does in the moment, it seems clear that history will not look kindly upon many of the decisions being made in Washington. President Trump will bear the brunt of that eventual opprobrium, but it&#8217;s fair to assume that his explicit and tacit allies will earn&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":164,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":175,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155\/revisions\/175"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}