{"id":1039,"date":"2025-10-29T15:06:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T19:06:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/?p=1039"},"modified":"2025-10-29T17:36:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T21:36:00","slug":"the-rise-of-the-middle-aged-murder-victim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/the-rise-of-the-middle-aged-murder-victim\/","title":{"rendered":"The rise of the middle-aged murder victim"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-duotone-grayscale\"><a href=\"https:\/\/catalog.archives.gov\/id\/305138\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"9699\" height=\"6308\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tip.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1040\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tip.jpg 9699w, https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tip-300x195.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Tip-768x499.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 9699px) 100vw, 9699px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Analyst Jeff Asher, one of the best sources for <a href=\"https:\/\/jasher.substack.com\/\">up-to-date data about crime<\/a> in the U.S., shared numbers on Tuesday that struck me as interesting: the age of victims of murder has been <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/jeffasher.bsky.social\/post\/3m4cdnimbb22v\">trending upward for several years<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can see that increase below. In 2020, the average age of a murder victim was 34, according to FBI data compiled by Asher. So far in 2025, the average age has been 36.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"min-height:481px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-dkig7\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dkig7\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-dkig7\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dkig7\/full.png\" alt=\"Average age of murder victims (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Asher shared a chart that looked a little bit like the one below. Particularly since the pandemic, the percentage of murder victims who are aged 40 and over has increased as the percentage who are aged 16 to 39 has dropped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"min-height:477px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-9KDAN\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/9KDAN\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-9KDAN\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/9KDAN\/full.png\" alt=\"Murder victims by age (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>You may not be surprised to hear that I, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbump.com\/\">author of a book about the baby boom<\/a>, was immediately curious whether this was simply a function of the increased percentage of over-40 Americans. You can see that below; there are more older Americans than there used to be, so one might assume they would also make up more of the (unfortunate) murdered population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"min-height:496px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-almoS\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/almoS\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-almoS\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/almoS\/full.png\" alt=\"U.S. residents by age (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>We can compare these two percentages directly. It remains the case that those aged 16 to 39 make up a disproportionate percentage of the population of the murdered, comprising a much higher percentage of the latter group than they do of the population. The gap between the 40-plus victim population and the U.S. population, meanwhile, has narrowed but is still wider than it was 40 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"min-height:566px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-g3Vjr\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/g3Vjr\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-g3Vjr\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/g3Vjr\/full.png\" alt=\"Younger adults continue to make up a disproportionate share of murder victims (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>I decided to break the numbers out a bit further. Here&#8217;s what they look like by generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"min-height:477px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-BOoNG\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/BOoNG\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-BOoNG\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/BOoNG\/full.png\" alt=\"Murder victims by age (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>You can see that this tracks with age; when baby boomers were (relatively) young, they made up a higher percentage of murder victims. Likewise with Gen X, millennials and Gen Z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can also look at those generational groups (as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2019\/01\/17\/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins\/\">defined by Pew Research Center<\/a>) as percentages of the population. (Note the little bumps and dips that are a function of the Census Bureau grouping elderly Americans into one bucket at different points.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"min-height:496px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-3i51o\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/3i51o\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-3i51o\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/3i51o\/full.png\" alt=\"U.S. residents by age (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>When we directly compare victimhood with population, we see something interesting. While members of the Silent generation (pre-baby boom) made up more of the population than murder victims by the late 1980s and boomers made up more of the population by the late 1990s, Gen X hasn&#8217;t made up significantly more of the population than the population of murder victims since its members were little kids. Gen X has, for now, settled in as about the same percentage of murder victims as it is of the population, despite getting older.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"min-height:566px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-ppFQP\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ppFQP\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-ppFQP\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ppFQP\/full.png\" alt=\"Younger adults continue to make up a disproportionate share of murder victims (Line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at it another way:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"min-height:1014px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-uiEXn\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\" defer src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/uiEXn\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\" data-target=\"#datawrapper-vis-uiEXn\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/uiEXn\/full.png\" alt=\"Gen X still makes up a proportionate percentage of murder victims (Small multiple line chart)\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>(Note that the ratio among silent generation members is returning to zero. That&#8217;s less a function of increased victimhood than decreased populations.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We shouldn&#8217;t overread the numbers here. As Asher noted in an email when he (generously) shared his numbers with me, the murder totals aren&#8217;t entirely apples-to-apples and the trend shown above hasn&#8217;t existed for that long. But this does comport with the general theory that there&#8217;s something unusual about Gen X (my generation, I&#8217;ll note) \u2014&nbsp;perhaps, some argue, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.virginia.edu\/content\/generation-x-bullseye-lead-exposure-harms-mental-health\">related to lead poisoning<\/a>. Murder victims often share their killers\u2019 demographics. If Gen X is disproportionately dying, Gen X may also be disproportionately killing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Worth tracking these numbers over time, certainly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Photo: The snub-nosed .38 Lee Harvey Oswald used to kill Officer J.D. Tippit. (National Archives)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analyst Jeff Asher, one of the best sources for up-to-date data about crime in the U.S., shared numbers on Tuesday that struck me as interesting: the age of victims of murder has been trending upward for several years. You can see that increase below. In 2020, the average age of&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1039"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1046,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039\/revisions\/1046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pbump.net\/o\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}