Why Arizona seems to have more people of Italian than Native American ancestry

On Monday, I jokingly suggested that the dispute over Columbus/Indigenous Peoples’ Day be resolved on a state-by-state basis, considering the ancestral heritage of each state’s residents. New York, which has far more people of Italian than Native American ancestry, would celebrate Columbus Day. Oklahoma, with far more people whose ancestors were Native Americans, would celebrate Indigenous Peoples’ Day.

Like so many other things I write, this was basically an excuse to do some data analysis. So, using Census Bureau data compiled by IPUMS, I determined what percentage of each states’ residents were Italian or Native American and, therefore, which holiday that state should/will celebrate.

I presented the results in this map.

When I shared this map on social media, a question arose: What was happening in Arizona? Was it really the case that the southwestern state has more people of Italian than Native American ancestry?

And the answer is that, yes, it does — at least according to this CPS data.

That’s only a recent development, though. In 2000, the CPS data indicates that Arizona had about 325,000 people of Native American ancestry but only 235,000 of Italian heritage. Between then and 2023, though, the state grew by 48 percent, with a large number of people from other states (often retirees) moving to the Sun Belt. The number of people of Italian ancestry in Arizona jumped to more than 304,000. During the same period the number of residents of Native American ancestry fell below 300,000. And here we are.

I pulled data from each state for 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2023 to show how the populations have shifted.

You’ll notice that the number of residents of Native American ancestry dropped in a number of states since 2000. In fact, Arizona wasn’t the only one to go from more-Native-American to more-Italian; 13 other states also saw the number of residents of Italian ancestry pass those who have Native American ancestry. (This analysis excludes people who claim both ancestries.) From 2000 to 2023, 41 states saw the number of residents of Italian ancestry increase. Only seven saw an increase in the number of residents claiming Native American ancestry.

It’s likely that this is a function of data collection rather than demography. My former colleague at The Washington Post, Andrew Van Dam, wrote a few years ago about an increase in Native American identification, a function of changes to how the Census Bureau asked about race. That conflicts with the CPS data, which shows a substantial decline in reported Native American ancestry.

It’s a more detailed question than I’ll get into here. Instead, I’d like to return to my original theme: The Holiday That Many People Don’t Even Get Off. So: A quarter of a century ago, most states would have more appropriately celebrated Indigenous Peoples’ Day than Columbus Day. According to this data, that is no longer the case.

Photo: A cactus in Arizona in 1882. (National Archives)