The number in new Trump polling that’s most worth watching

Even by the standards of Donald Trump’s poorly reviewed second term in office, the poll numbers that have come out over the past week are miserable.

An NBC poll found that two-thirds of Americans think Trump’s doing a bad job handling inflation and the economy and that he’s failing at protecting the middle class. An ABC News-Washington Post poll determined that most Americans think that Trump isn’t committed to free and fair elections, or to a fair criminal justice system, or to free speech or to the freedom of the press. New CNN polling has Trump’s approval rating at a second-term low and disapproval of his presidency at an all-time high. Polling from YouGov conducted for the Economist similarly determined that Trump’s approval is as low now as it has ever been.

Not only that, but YouGov finds him viewed more negatively than positively on a range of issues: crime, immigration, foreign policy, abortion, jobs and the economy and inflation.

The reviews are just … bad. And yet, even within those bad numbers, there remains that glimmering core of support from Trump’s own party.

In the new ABC-Post poll, for example, nearly 9 in 10 Republicans still view Trump’s presidency with approval. That’s compared to only 40 percent of all Americans — a percentage that’s inflated by all of those still-loyal Republicans.

This is the most important number for Trump. His presidency is dependent on two overlapping factors: that his base will remain loyal to him, regardless of what he does, and that this loyalty will make it impossible for other Republicans to start going sideways. If Republicans stay in lockstep with the president, so will Republican legislators facing primaries in the near-to-medium term. If the base stays loyal, Trump couldn’t care less about being caught in hypocrisies or lies. He’s shed support since the beginning of the year — but mostly not among Republicans, so what does he care?

That said, there is an aspect of Trump’s polling that might legitimately start to cause him and his advisors some concern.

I don’t believe that Trump’s support will ever get too low, almost certainly not under, say, a third of the population. There’s simply too much partisanship baked into our political culture (and our culture culture) for many of the people who’ve been invested in him personally for the past decade to suddenly declare that they were wrong all along.

But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t important fluctuations in his support. For example, consider the difference in approval of Trump’s performance as president from February to October, looking at polls released by The Washington Post.

In both months, Trump’s overall approval from Republicans was near 90 percent: 88 percent in February and 86 percent last month. But in February, more than 7 in 10 Republicans who approved of Trump’s presidency did so strongly. Last month, it was less than 6 in 10.

This is how political support works. People don’t simply go from loving a politician to hating him. There’s a waypoint: indifference. Enthusiasm becomes shrugging becomes dislike becomes disgust. And since February, a chunk of Republicans have gone from cheers to shrugs.

It’s risky to extrapolate too much from a two-point trend, so let’s look at YouGov’s weekly polling over the course of the year. Among all adults, Trump’s approval has slipped, in part because he shed “strongly approve” support from non-Republicans.

But notice what happened to his approval among Republicans. The percent of Republicans who strongly approved of Trump dropped … and the percent who somewhat approve increased. Cheers to shrugs.

To see why this is potentially a problem, let’s cherry-pick a bit. Taking monthly averages of Trump’s approval from Republicans, consider his numbers for February, July and October. They’re highlighted below.

From February to July, his overall approval only dropped 3 points. But the percentage of Republicans who strongly approved of him dropped 14 points as the percent who somewhat approved rose 12 points. By October, he was down another 3 percentage points overall, gaining 2 percentage points among those who strongly approve and losing 5 points among those who somewhat approve.

Does this reflect a small portion of Republicans moving from strong support to soft support to no support? Could be. Are these shifts so small as to be of questionable use? Yes.

As I said, though, these are the numbers I’m tracking. If Trump’s Republican support softens, it may not mean that his party starts to view him negatively. It may just mean they’re not as enthusiastic about what he’s doing — potentially opening up the door for other Republicans to exploit that lack of enthusiasm.

At some point in the near future, Trump’s status as a lame duck will also kick in. There will be less reason for Republicans to insist on his greatness as the 2028 presidential campaign heats up. Republican candidates looking to make their mark will navigate to where the base is, even if that’s not where Trump lands.

For a president who embraces an authoritarian approach to power, fervent opposition is a plus. Those are people to demonize and against whom to use an iron fist. What he really ought to fear is what’s buried in these numbers: his supporters become indifferent.

Photo: A picture of someone taking a picture of Trump. (White House/Flickr)